Source: Kwalejin Kimiyyar Aikin Noma ta kasar Sin
[Gabatarwa] Kididdigar tafarnuwa a cikin ajiya mai sanyi muhimmiyar alama ce ta sa ido kan wadatar da kasuwar tafarnuwa, kuma bayanan kididdigar suna shafar canjin kasuwa na tafarnuwa a ajiyar sanyi a karkashin yanayin dogon lokaci. A cikin 2022, adadin tafarnuwa da aka girbe a lokacin rani zai wuce tan miliyan 5, wanda zai kai kololuwar tarihi. Bayan zuwan manyan bayanai na kaya a farkon watan Satumba, yanayin ɗan gajeren lokaci na kasuwar tafarnuwa a cikin ajiyar sanyi zai kasance mai rauni, amma ba a ragu sosai ba. Gaba ɗaya tunanin masu ajiya yana da kyau. Menene yanayin kasuwar nan gaba?
A farkon watan Satumba na 2022, jimillar kididdigar sabbin tafarnuwa da tsohuwar tafarnuwa za ta kai tan miliyan 5.099, karuwar kashi 14.76% a shekara, kashi 161.49% fiye da mafi karancin adadin ajiya a cikin shekaru 10 da suka gabata, da kuma 52.43% fiye da matsakaicin adadin ajiya a cikin shekaru 10 da suka gabata. Kididdigar tafarnuwa a cikin ajiyar sanyi a wannan lokacin noma ya kai wani matsayi mai girma.
1. A shekarar 2022 yanki da fitar tafarnuwa da ake girbe a lokacin rani ya karu, kuma adadin tafarnuwa a cikin sanyi ya kai wani matsayi mai girma.
A cikin 2021, yankin kaka na tafarnuwa na kasuwanci a arewa zai zama miliyan 6.67, kuma adadin tafarnuwa da aka girbe a lokacin rani zai kai ton 8020000 a 2022. Yankin dasa shuki da yawan amfanin ƙasa ya karu kuma ya kusanci babban tarihi. Jimillar abin da aka fitar daidai yake da na shekarar 2020, tare da karuwa da kashi 9.93% idan aka kwatanta da matsakaicin darajar a cikin shekaru biyar da suka gabata.
Duk da cewa wadatar tafarnuwar ta yi yawa a bana, wasu ‘yan kasuwa sun yi hasashen cewa adadin sabbin tafarnuwa ya haura ton miliyan 5 kafin a ajiye ta, amma har yanzu ana sha’awar sayen tafarnuwar. A farkon samar da tafarnuwa a lokacin rani na 2022, yawancin mahalarta kasuwa sun himmatu zuwa kasuwa don samun kayan bayan kammala binciken bincike na asali. Adana da lokacin karbar sabbin tafarnuwa busasshen a bana ya kasance gaban shekaru biyu da suka gabata. A ƙarshen watan Mayu, sabuwar tafarnuwa ba ta bushe gaba ɗaya ba. Dillalan kasuwannin cikin gida da wasu masu samar da ajiyar kayayyaki na kasashen waje sun zo kasuwa a jere don samun kayan. Lokacin ajiyar kaya na tsakiya ya kasance daga Yuni 8 zuwa 15 ga Yuli.
2. Ƙananan farashi yana jawo masu samar da ajiya don shiga kasuwa don karɓar kaya
A cewar rahotannin da suka dace, babban abin da ke taimakawa wajen adana busasshen tafarnuwa a bana shi ne rashin fa'idar tafarnuwar da ake samu a wannan shekarar. Farashin budewar tafarnuwa na bazara a cikin 2022 yana kan matsakaicin matakin a cikin shekaru biyar da suka gabata. Daga watan Yuni zuwa Agusta, matsakaicin farashin siyan sabbin tafarnuwa yuan 1.86 a kowace kg, raguwar 24.68% idan aka kwatanta da bara; Ya yi ƙasa da kashi 17.68% fiye da matsakaicin darajar yuan/jin 2.26 a cikin shekaru biyar da suka gabata.
A cikin lokacin samarwa na 2019/2020 da 2021/2022, ajiyar sanyi a cikin shekarar da aka samu farashi mai yawa a cikin sabon lokacin ya sami asara mai yawa, kuma matsakaicin ribar ajiyar kuɗin ribar a lokacin samarwa na 2021/2022 ya kai aƙalla - 137.83%. Duk da haka, a cikin shekarar 2018/2019 da 2020/2021, tafarnuwa mai sanyi ta samar da sabbin kayayyaki masu rahusa, kuma ribar da aka samu na matsakaicin kudin ajiyar kayayyaki na ainihin kaya a shekarar 2018/2019 ya kai kashi 60.29%, yayin da a shekarar 2020/2021, mafi girma a tarihi ya kai miliyan 4. Riba na asali na kayan ajiyar tafarnuwa mai sanyi ya kasance 19.95%, kuma matsakaicin ribar shine 30.22%. Ƙananan farashin ya fi kyau ga kamfanonin ajiya don karɓar kaya.
A lokacin samarwa daga Yuni zuwa farkon Satumba, farashin ya fara tashi, sannan ya fadi, sannan ya sake komawa kadan. Dangane da yanayin haɓakar haɓakar ƙarancin ƙarancin samarwa da farashin buɗewa, mafi yawan masu samar da ajiya a wannan shekara sun zaɓi ma'anar kusa da farashin tunani don shiga kasuwa, koyaushe suna bin ka'idar samun ƙarancin farashi da farashi mai girma ba kora ba. Yawancin masu ajiya ba sa tsammanin ribar tafarnuwar ajiyar sanyi zata yi yawa. Yawancinsu sun ce ribar za ta kai kusan kashi 20 cikin 100, kuma ko da ba a samu damar fita daga riba ba, za su iya yin asara ko da kuwa yawan jarin da aka zuba wajen adana tafarnuwa ya yi kadan a bana.
3. Rage tsammanin yana goyan bayan amincewar kamfanonin ajiya a kasuwa na gaba
A halin yanzu, ana sa ran yankin dashen tafarnuwa da aka dasa a kaka na shekarar 2022 zai ragu, wanda shi ne babban dalilin da ya sa kamfanonin ajiya su zabi rike kayan. Bukatar tafarnuwar ajiyar sanyi a kasuwannin cikin gida za ta karu a hankali a ranar 15 ga watan Satumba, kuma karuwar bukatar za ta kara kwarin gwiwar kamfanonin ajiya na shiga kasuwar. A ƙarshen Satumba, duk wuraren da ake nomawa sun shiga mataki na shuka a jere. A hankali aiwatar da labarai na rage iri a watan Oktoba zai karfafa amincewar masu ajiya. A lokacin, farashin tafarnuwa a cikin ajiyar sanyi na iya tashi.
Lokacin aikawa: Satumba-28-2022