Umthombo: iAkhademi yaseTshayina yeeSayensi zezoLimo
[Intshayelelo] Uluhlu lwegalikhi kwindawo yokugcina ebandayo luphawu olubalulekileyo lokubeka iliso lonikezelo lwemarike yegalikhi, kwaye idatha ye-inventri ichaphazela ukutshintshwa kweemarike zegalikhi kwindawo yokugcina ebandayo phantsi kwendlela yexesha elide. Ngo-2022, uluhlu lwegalikhi evunwe ehlotyeni luya kudlula iitoni ezizigidi ezi-5, ukufikelela kwimbali yembali. Emva kokufika kwedatha ephezulu ye-inventory ekuqaleni kukaSeptemba, i-short-term trend of garlic market kwi-cold storage iya kuba buthathaka, kodwa ingancitshiswa kakhulu. Ingqondo epheleleyo yabagcini bemali ilungile. Ithini intsingiselo yexesha elizayo yemarike?
Ekuqaleni kukaSeptemba 2022, uluhlu olupheleleyo lwegalikhi entsha kunye endala iya kuba yi-5.099 yezigidi zeetoni, ukwanda kwe-14.76% ngonyaka, i-161.49% ngaphezu kweyona mali incinci yokugcina imali kwiminyaka eyi-10 yakutshanje, kunye ne-52.43% ngaphezu kwe-avareji yesixa sokugcina kwiminyaka eyi-10 yakutshanje. Uluhlu lwegalikhi kwindawo yokugcina ebandayo kweli xesha lokuvelisa lifikelele kwirekhodi eliphezulu.
1. Ngo-2022, indawo kunye nemveliso yegalikhi evunwe ehlotyeni yanda, kwaye uluhlu lwegalikhi kwindawo yokugcina ebandayo lufikelele kwirekhodi eliphezulu.
Ngo-2021, indawo yokutyala ekwindla ye-garlic yorhwebo enyakatho iya kuba yi-6.67 yezigidi ze-mu, kwaye imveliso epheleleyo yegalikhi evunwe ehlotyeni iya kuba yi-8020000 yeetoni ngo-2022. Indawo yokutyala kunye nesivuno sanda kwaye sasondela kwimbali ephezulu. Isiphumo siphelele ngokusisiseko siyafana naso ngo-2020, ngokunyuka kwe-9.93% xa kuthelekiswa nexabiso eliphakathi kwiminyaka emihlanu yakutshanje.
Nangona unikezelo lwegalikhi lukhulu kakhulu kulo nyaka, abanye oosomashishini baye bachaza ukuba uluhlu lwegalikhi entsha lungaphezu kweetoni ezizigidi ezi-5 ngaphambi kokuba ibekwe kwindawo yokugcina, kodwa umdla wokufumana ikonofile entsha usephezulu. Ekuqaleni kokuveliswa kwegalikhi ehlotyeni lika-2022, abaninzi abathathi-nxaxheba beemarike baya kwiimarike ukuze bafumane iimpahla emva kokugqiba ulwazi olusisiseko lophando. Ukugcinwa kunye nexesha lokufumana ikonofile entsha eyomileyo kulo nyaka beliphambi kweminyaka emibini edlulileyo. Ekupheleni kukaMeyi, igalikhi entsha ayizange yomiswe ngokupheleleyo. Abathengisi basekhaya kunye nabanye ababoneleli bogcino bangaphandle beza ngokulandelelanayo emarikeni ukuza kufumana iimpahla. Ixesha logcino elisembindini lalisusela kuJuni 8 ukuya kuJulayi 15.
2. Ixabiso eliphantsi litsala ababoneleli bokugcina ukuba bangene ngenkuthalo kwimarike ukufumana iimpahla
Ngokweengxelo ezifanelekileyo, eyona nto iphambili yokuqhubela phambili ukuxhasa ukugcinwa kwegalikhi esanda kumiswa kulo nyaka yinzuzo yexabiso eliphantsi legalikhi kulo nyaka. Ixabiso lokuvula igalikhi yehlobo kwi-2022 ikwinqanaba eliphakathi kwiminyaka emihlanu edlulileyo. Ukususela ngoJuni ukuya ku-Agasti, i-avareji yexabiso lokuthenga i-garlic entsha yayiyi-1.86 yuan / kg, ukuhla kwe-24.68% xa kuthelekiswa nonyaka odlulileyo; I-17.68% ingaphantsi kunexabiso eliphakathi kwe-2.26 yuan / jin kwiminyaka emihlanu yakutshanje.
Ngexesha lemveliso lika-2019/2020 kunye no-2021/2022, ukugcinwa okubandayo kunyaka wokufumana ixabiso eliphezulu kwixesha elitsha lafumana ilahleko eninzi, kwaye umyinge wenzuzo yeendleko zokugcinwa kwempahla kwixesha lemveliso lika-2021/2022 ufikelele ubuncinane kwi-137.83%. Nangona kunjalo, ngonyaka ka-2018/2019 kunye no-2020/2021, ikonofile yokugcina ebandayo yavelisa iimpahla ezitsha zexabiso eliphantsi, kunye nomda wenzuzo yexabiso eliqhelekileyo lokugcinwa kwempahla ye-inventory yokuqala kwi-2018/2019 ifikelele kwi-60.29%, ngelixa ngonyaka ka-2020/2020 ukuya kwi-2020 / 2024, i-inventory ye-2020 / 2021 yayiyimbali ephezulu. i-avareji yengeniso yengeniso ye-inventri yokuqala ye-garlic yokugcina ebandayo yayiyi-19.95%, kwaye i-margin yenzuzo ephezulu yayiyi-30.22%. Ixabiso eliphantsi linomtsalane ngakumbi kwiinkampani zokugcina iimpahla.
Kwixesha lokuvelisa ukususela ngoJuni ukuya ekuqaleni kukaSeptemba, ixabiso laqala laphakama, laza lawa, laza laphinda laphindaphinda kancinane. Ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yokunyuka kokubonelela okuphantsi kunye nexabiso lokuvula, abaninzi ababoneleli bokugcina kulo nyaka bakhethe inqaku elikufutshane nexabiso lezengqondo lokungena kwimarike, bahlala bebambelela kumgaqo wokufumana ixabiso eliphantsi kunye nexabiso eliphezulu lokungasukeli. Uninzi lwabagcini-mali abazange balindele ukuba umda wenzuzo yegalikhi yokugcina ebandayo ibe phezulu. Uninzi lwabo lwathi i-profit margin iya kuba malunga ne-20%, kwaye nokuba akukho thuba lokuphuma kwinzuzo, banokuhlawulela ukulahlekelwa nokuba isixa semali etyalwe ekugcinweni kwegalikhi yayincinci kulo nyaka.
3. Ulindelo lokunciphisa luxhasa ukuzithemba kweenkampani zokugcina kwimarike yexesha elizayo
Okwangoku, kulindeleke ukuba indawo yokutyala igalikhi etyalwe ekwindla ye-2022 iya kuncipha, eyona nto iqhuba ukuba iinkampani zokugcina zikhethe ukubamba iimpahla. Imfuno yemarike yasekhaya yokugcina igalikhi ebandayo iya kunyuka ngokuthe ngcembe malunga ne-15 kaSeptemba, kwaye imfuno eyongezelelweyo iya kukhulisa ukuzithemba kweenkampani zokugcina ukuba zithathe inxaxheba kwimarike. Ekupheleni kukaSeptemba, zonke iindawo ezivelisayo zangena kwinqanaba lokutyala ngokulandelelanayo. Ukuphunyezwa ngokuthe ngcembe kweendaba zokucuthwa kwembewu ngo-Oktobha kuya komeleza ukuzithemba kwabagcini-mali. Ngelo xesha, ixabiso legalikhi kwindawo yokugcina ebandayo linokunyuka.
Ixesha lokuposa: Sep-28-2022