Gwero: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
[Mawu Oyamba] Kuwerengera kwa adyo kumalo ozizira ozizira ndi chizindikiro chofunikira chowunikira msika wa adyo, ndipo deta yowunikira imakhudza kusintha kwa msika wa adyo mu yosungirako ozizira pansi pa nthawi yayitali. Mu 2022, kuchuluka kwa adyo wokolola m'chilimwe kudzaposa matani 5 miliyoni, kufika pachimake chambiri. Pambuyo pakufika kwa deta yochuluka kwambiri kumayambiriro kwa September, kachitidwe kakang'ono ka msika wa adyo kumalo ozizira ozizira adzakhala ofooka, koma osachepetsedwa kwambiri. Malingaliro onse a osunga ndalama ndi abwino. Kodi msika ukuyenda bwanji?
Kumayambiriro kwa September 2022, chiwerengero chonse cha adyo watsopano ndi akale adzakhala matani 5.099 miliyoni, kuwonjezeka kwa 14,76% chaka pa chaka, 161,49% kuposa warehousing ndalama osachepera zaka 10, ndi 52.43% kuposa pafupifupi warehousing kuchuluka m'zaka zaposachedwapa 10. Kuwerengera kwa adyo mu kusungirako kuzizira mu nyengo yopangira ino kwafika pambiri.
1. Mu 2022, dera ndi zotuluka za adyo zomwe zimakololedwa m'chilimwe zidawonjezeka, ndipo kuchuluka kwa adyo kumalo osungira ozizira kunafika patali kwambiri.
Mu 2021, malo obzala m'dzinja a adyo wamalonda kumpoto adzakhala 6.67 miliyoni mu, ndipo chiwerengero cha adyo chokolola m'chilimwe chidzakhala matani 8020000 mu 2022. Malo obzala ndi zokolola zinawonjezeka ndikuyandikira mbiri yakale. Zotulutsa zonse ndizofanana ndi zomwe zidachitika mu 2020, zomwe zidakwera 9.93% poyerekeza ndi mtengo wapakati pazaka zisanu zaposachedwa.
Ngakhale kuti adyo ndiwochuluka kwambiri chaka chino, amalonda ena adanena kuti kufufuza kwa adyo watsopano ndi matani oposa 5 miliyoni asanaikidwe, koma chidwi chofuna kupeza adyo watsopano chidakali chachikulu. Kumayambiriro kwa kupanga adyo m'chilimwe cha 2022, ambiri omwe adatenga nawo msika adapita kumsika kuti akatenge katunduyo atamaliza kafukufuku wofunikira. Nthawi yosungira ndi kulandira adyo watsopano wowuma mchaka chino inali patsogolo pa zaka ziwiri zapitazi. Kumapeto kwa Meyi, adyo watsopanoyo sanaume kwathunthu. Ogulitsa m'misika yapakhomo ndi ena ogulitsa zinthu zakunja anabwera motsatizana kumsika kudzatenga katunduyo. Nthawi yosungiramo zinthu zapakati inali kuyambira Juni 8 mpaka Julayi 15.
2. Mtengo wotsika umakopa ogulitsa kuti alowe mumsika kuti alandire katundu
Malinga ndi malipoti oyenerera, mphamvu yayikulu yothandizira kusungirako adyo wouma kumene chaka chino ndi mtengo wotsika mtengo wa adyo chaka chino. Mtengo wotsegulira wa adyo yachilimwe mu 2022 uli pakatikati pazaka zisanu zapitazi. Kuyambira Juni mpaka Ogasiti, mtengo wogula warehousing wa adyo watsopano unali 1.86 yuan / kg, kuchepa kwa 24.68% poyerekeza ndi chaka chatha; Ndi 17.68% yotsika kuposa mtengo wapakati wa 2.26 yuan/jin m'zaka zisanu zaposachedwa.
M'nyengo yopanga 2019/2020 ndi 2021/2022, kusungirako kozizira m'chaka cholandira mtengo wamtengo wapatali mu nthawi yatsopanoyi kunatayika kwambiri, ndipo phindu lapakati pa malo osungiramo katundu mu nyengo yopangira 2021/2022 linafika osachepera - 137.83%. Komabe, m'chaka cha 2018/2019 ndi 2020/2021, adyo ozizira osungira anatulutsa zinthu zatsopano zamtengo wapatali, ndipo phindu lamtengo wapatali lamtengo wapatali wazinthu zoyamba za 2018/2019 zinafika 60,29%, pamene m'chaka cha 2020/2024 chisanafike chaka cha 2020 / 2021, chiwerengero cha 5 miliyoni chisanafike phindu lapakati la zoyambira zosungirako adyo ozizira anali 19.95%, ndipo phindu lalikulu la phindu linali 30,22%. Mtengo wotsika umakopa kwambiri kuti makampani osungira alandire katundu.
M'nyengo yopangira kuyambira June mpaka kumayambiriro kwa September, mtengo unayamba kuwuka, kenako unagwa, kenako unabwereranso pang'ono. Potsutsana ndi kutsika kwapang'onopang'ono kwapang'onopang'ono ndi mtengo wotsegulira, ambiri osungirako chaka chino adasankha mfundo pafupi ndi mtengo wamaganizo kuti alowe mumsika, nthawi zonse amatsatira mfundo yogula mtengo wotsika komanso mtengo wapamwamba osati kuthamangitsa. Ambiri mwa osunga ndalama sankayembekezera kuti phindu la adyo wosungirako kuzizira likhale lokwera. Ambiri a iwo adanena kuti phindu la phindu lidzakhala pafupifupi 20%, ndipo ngakhale panalibe mwayi wotuluka phindu, angakwanitse kutaya ngakhale ndalama zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito posungira adyo zinali zochepa chaka chino.
3. Chiyembekezo chochepetsera chimathandizira kudalirika kwamakampani osungiramo msika wam'tsogolo
Pakalipano, zikuyembekezeredwa kuti malo obzala adyo omwe adabzalidwa m'dzinja la 2022 adzachepa, zomwe ndizofunikira kwambiri makampani osungiramo katundu kuti asankhe kusunga katunduyo. Kufuna kwa msika wapakhomo kwa adyo osungira ozizira kudzawonjezeka pang'onopang'ono pafupi ndi September 15, ndipo kufunikira kowonjezereka kudzalimbitsa chidaliro cha makampani osungiramo zinthu kuti atenge nawo msika. Chakumapeto kwa mwezi wa September, madera onse obala analowa motsatizana. Kukhazikitsidwa kwapang'onopang'ono kwa uthenga wa kuchepetsa mbewu mu October kudzalimbitsa chidaliro cha osunga ndalama. Panthawiyo, mtengo wa adyo mu yosungirako ozizira ukhoza kukwera.
Nthawi yotumiza: Sep-28-2022