Tushe: Kwalejin Kimiyyar Noma ta China
[Gabatarwa] Kayayyakin tafarnuwa a cikin ajiyar sanyi muhimmin alama ce ta sa ido kan wadatar da tafarnuwa a kasuwar, kuma bayanan kaya suna shafar canjin kasuwa na tafarnuwa a cikin ajiyar sanyi a ƙarƙashin yanayin dogon lokaci. A shekarar 2022, adadin tafarnuwa da aka girba a lokacin rani zai wuce tan miliyan 5, wanda ya kai kololuwar tarihi. Bayan isowar bayanai masu yawa a farkon Satumba, yanayin ɗan gajeren lokaci na kasuwar tafarnuwa a cikin ajiyar sanyi zai yi rauni, amma ba zai ragu sosai ba. Gabaɗaya tunanin masu ajiya yana da kyau. Menene yanayin kasuwa a nan gaba?
A farkon watan Satumba na 2022, jimillar adadin tafarnuwar da aka samu a cikin sabbin da tsofaffinta zai kai tan miliyan 5.099, wanda hakan ya karu da kashi 14.76% a kowace shekara, da kashi 161.49% fiye da mafi ƙarancin adadin adanawa a cikin shekaru 10 da suka gabata, da kuma kashi 52.43% fiye da matsakaicin adadin adanawa a cikin shekaru 10 da suka gabata. Yawan tafarnuwar da aka samu a cikin ajiyar sanyi a wannan lokacin samarwa ya kai matsayi mafi girma.
1. A shekarar 2022, yankin da kuma yawan amfanin tafarnuwa da aka girbe a lokacin rani ya karu, kuma adadin tafarnuwa da aka adana a cikin sanyi ya kai matsayi mafi girma.
A shekarar 2021, yankin da ake shuka tafarnuwa a kaka a arewa zai kai mu miliyan 6.67, kuma jimillar yawan tafarnuwa da aka girbe a lokacin bazara zai kai tan 8020000 a shekarar 2022. Yankin da aka shuka da yawan amfanin gona ya karu kuma ya kusanci babban tarihi. Jimillar yawan amfanin gona iri daya ne da na shekarar 2020, tare da karuwar kashi 9.93% idan aka kwatanta da matsakaicin darajar da aka samu a cikin shekaru biyar da suka gabata.
Duk da cewa wadatar tafarnuwa ta yi yawa a wannan shekarar, wasu 'yan kasuwa sun yi hasashen cewa tarin tafarnuwar ya fi tan miliyan 5 kafin a adana ta, amma sha'awar sayen tafarnuwar har yanzu tana da yawa. A farkon samar da tafarnuwar a lokacin bazara na 2022, mahalarta kasuwa da yawa sun je kasuwa don samun kayayyakin bayan kammala binciken bayanai na asali. Lokacin adana tafarnuwar busasshiya da karɓar sabbin tafarnuwar busasshiya a wannan shekarar ya fi na shekaru biyu da suka gabata. A ƙarshen watan Mayu, sabuwar tafarnuwar ba ta bushe gaba ɗaya ba. Dillalan kasuwar cikin gida da wasu masu samar da adana tafarnuwar ƙasashen waje sun zo kasuwa a jere don ɗaukar kayayyakin. Lokacin adana tafarnuwar ya kasance daga 8 ga Yuni zuwa 15 ga Yuli.
2. Ƙarancin farashi yana jan hankalin masu samar da ajiya su shiga kasuwa don karɓar kayayyaki
A cewar rahotannin da suka dace, babban abin da ke taimakawa wajen adana sabbin tafarnuwa da aka busar a wannan shekarar shine ƙarancin farashin tafarnuwa a wannan shekarar. Farashin tafarnuwa na lokacin rani a shekarar 2022 ya kasance matsakaici a cikin shekaru biyar da suka gabata. Daga watan Yuni zuwa Agusta, matsakaicin farashin siyan sabbin tafarnuwa shine yuan 1.86/kg, raguwar kashi 24.68% idan aka kwatanta da bara; Ya yi ƙasa da kashi 17.68% fiye da matsakaicin ƙimar yuan 2.26/jin a cikin shekaru biyar da suka gabata.
A lokacin samar da kayayyaki na 2019/2020 da 2021/2022, ajiyar kayan sanyi a shekarar da aka samu farashi mai tsada a sabuwar lokacin ta fuskanci asara mai yawa, kuma matsakaicin ribar da aka samu a ajiyar kayan a lokacin samar da kayayyaki na 2021/2022 ya kai akalla - 137.83%. Duk da haka, a shekarar 2018/2019 da 2020/2021, tafarnuwar da aka adana a cikin sanyi ta samar da sabbin kayayyaki masu rahusa, kuma ribar da aka samu a matsakaicin farashin ajiyar kayan asali a 2018/2019 ta kai kashi 60.29%, yayin da a shekarar 2020/2021, lokacin da mafi girman kaya a tarihi ya kusa tan miliyan 4.5 kafin wannan shekarar, matsakaicin ribar da aka samu a asalin kayan tafarnuwar da aka adana a cikin sanyi ya kai kashi 19.95%, kuma matsakaicin ribar ita ce kashi 30.22%. Ƙarancin farashi ya fi jan hankali ga kamfanonin ajiya don karɓar kayayyaki.
A lokacin samar da kayayyaki daga watan Yuni zuwa farkon Satumba, farashin ya fara tashi, sannan ya faɗi, sannan ya ɗan farfado. Dangane da ƙarancin ƙaruwar wadata da farashin buɗewa, yawancin masu samar da kayan ajiya a wannan shekarar sun zaɓi wurin da ya kusa da farashin tunani don shiga kasuwa, suna bin ƙa'idar samun ƙarancin farashi da kuma rashin bin farashi mai yawa. Yawancin masu ajiya ba su yi tsammanin ribar tafarnuwar adanawa mai sanyi za ta yi yawa ba. Yawancinsu sun ce ribar za ta kai kusan kashi 20%, kuma ko da babu damar fita daga riba, za su iya rasa ko da adadin jarin da aka zuba a adana tafarnuwa ƙarami ne a wannan shekarar.
3. Tsammanin raguwar yana goyon bayan kwarin gwiwar kamfanonin ajiya game da kasuwa ta gaba
A yanzu haka, ana sa ran yankin da ake shuka tafarnuwa da aka dasa a kaka ta 2022 zai ragu, wanda shine babban abin da ke motsa kamfanonin ajiya su zaɓi riƙe kayan. Bukatar tafarnuwa a kasuwar cikin gida za ta ƙaru a hankali a kusa da 15 ga Satumba, kuma ƙaruwar buƙatar za ta ƙara wa kamfanonin ajiya kwarin gwiwa don shiga kasuwa. A ƙarshen Satumba, duk wuraren da ake nomawa sun shiga matakin shuka a jere. Aiwatar da labarin rage iri a hankali a watan Oktoba zai ƙarfafa kwarin gwiwar masu ajiya. A wannan lokacin, farashin tafarnuwa a cikin ajiyar sanyi na iya ƙaruwa.
Lokacin Saƙo: Satumba-28-2022